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Navigating the landscape of critical minerals: Challenges and opportunities ahead

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In the emerging era of critical minerals, the demand for these resources is poised to skyrocket in the foreseeable future. This demand is being driven by the imperative to construct a more sustainable, eco-friendly world, advance digital economies, modernize industrial systems, and mitigate the effects of climate change. With the onset of the energy transition, which is arguably the most transformative period since the industrial revolution, mining these so-called “critical minerals” has become indispensable for our sustainable future.

But what exactly defines a mineral as critical? The criteria for categorizing minerals as critical vary from country to country, but there are common characteristics that transcend borders. Critical minerals typically exhibit a lack of substitutability, uneven distribution of reserves or processing capacities leading to concentration, usage in industries pivotal for energy transition, strategic significance in defense, and elevated geopolitical risks. These minerals are scattered across the globe, prompting nations to strategically secure their value chains to meet energy transition objectives.

The critical minerals sector is marked by a complex ecosystem of upstream, midstream, and downstream interests. Upstream extraction often occurs in developing or challenging jurisdictions, while processing is predominantly concentrated in mainland China. Unlike the oil and gas sector, where economies of scale have been established over decades, critical minerals, often utilized in small quantities, do not typically experience rapid expansion. Therefore, diversifying the supply chain has become paramount. Resource nationalism and environmental concerns further complicate matters, leading to nearshoring and regionalization initiatives.

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Copper, a core material for various applications in energy infrastructure, remains a linchpin for many countries. Its demand is projected to nearly double by 2035, primarily driven by the expansion of solar and wind energy projects. However, the value chain for critical minerals extends beyond extraction to encompass processing locations, adding another layer of complexity. Price volatility, as witnessed with lithium, underscores the dynamic nature of this sector.

Asia plays a central role in the critical minerals discourse, with countries like Australia, Chile and China dominating production and processing. With soaring demand projected in the coming decades, the mining industry faces significant challenges. The International Energy Agency forecasts substantial increases in demand for minerals like nickel, cobalt, copper, rare earths and lithium. Meeting this demand while adhering to sustainability frameworks presents a daunting task for miners.

Mining is no longer confined to mere excavation; it entails navigating myriad challenges, from locating ore bodies to securing investments and adhering to sustainability standards. The prolonged lead times for mine development, coupled with regulatory hurdles and geopolitical tensions, further complicate the landscape. As the race for critical minerals intensifies, success hinges on adopting a holistic approach encompassing the entire value chain.

Moving forward, miners must strike a balance between speed and sustainability, embracing technological advancements, environmental stewardship, community engagement, and diversity and inclusion initiatives. Countries, meanwhile, must formulate tailored strategies to support their mining industries. Ultimately, those who master the intricacies of the critical minerals landscape and forge strategic alliances will emerge as leaders in this pivotal arena of resource management.

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